SpaceX: BUSTED!! (Part 1)

Thunderf00t · 455K views · 2021 · 28:59

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Space exploration & spaceflightTech industry & business modelscommentarydated

Why Hacker News recommends it

HN commenters cite it as the skeptical case against SpaceX's cost claims, mostly in critical arguments rather than as a recommendation.

What it is

Thunderf00t's critique of SpaceX's claims, arguing its launches are not actually cheaper than competitors or the Space Shuttle. It questions the economics of reusability.

Recommended by 0 HN commenters across 0 different months, 2021 to 2022.

What Hacker News said

Critical notum · 2021-02 · on “Perseverance Rover lands on Mars [video]”

I'll just leave Thunderf00t's latest video here: [this video] Let's not diminish ether's breakthroughs, but financial isn't one of SpaceX's.

Critical Daho0n · 2021-02 · on “Perseverance Rover lands on Mars [video]”

It doesn't really matter much because a look at the actual numbers shows that SpaceX charge more than the cost of launching the exact same payload would have cost using the shuttle. Besides the reusability point is disingenuous when talking cost since SpaceX's cost have actually gone up per (re)launch, not down. So yes, it is more complex than quippy internet back and forth suggests. Here is a video that explains it in decent details if you are interested, but the TL;DR is that SpaceX is more expensive than the shuttle and way more expensive than they said they would be: [this video]

Critical Daho0n · 2021-02 · on “Perseverance Rover lands on Mars [video]”

They really didn't. SpaceX is not cheaper than the shuttle no matter how many times it gets repeated. That SpaceX fudges the numbers so it is hard to compare doesn't make it true. In reality SpaceX is more expensive than not only the shuttle but also their own projections. Here's a breakdown: [this video]

Critical Nekhrimah · 2021-02 · on “Perseverance Rover lands on Mars [video]”

> Here's a breakdown: [this video] I watched the first 90 seconds of this. On the cost of re-usability of a falcon 9 point, the figures are shown as from Wikipedia. So 1) not a primary source. 2) fails to calculate the percentage correctly between $62m and $50m as "around 10%". It's almost 20% on those figures. 3) and most importantly, those numbers are the cost to the customer, not SpaceX's internal cost. As they have no current competition in rocket re-usability, they are able to recoup the R&D cost for developing this technology. I don't think I'll bother watching the rest of the video.

Critical macspoofing · 2021-03 · on “Concern in Europe that the Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets will not be competitive”

>You are directly repeating the propaganda Arianespace and Russia has been pushing about SpaceX since the beginning. I would honestly advice you to rethink this before repeating stuff that is pushed by lots of Russian government channels. What a crazy accusation to make. I can't have an opinion about the business model of a company lest some doofus accuses me of what? Being a russian bot? Spreading DANGEROUS ideas? Jesus Christ. Get a handle on yourself. I have no doubt Russians are not objective observers here. SpaceX is a competitor so the criticism they level has to be seen through that lens ... but ... their criticism will have a kernel of truth. On the other side, because of Musk's cult

Critical macspoofing · 2021-03 · on “Concern in Europe that the Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets will not be competitive”

>The fact is SpaceX launched 50% of the global payload to Orbit, and over around 30% of all spacecraft. Again, I'm not arguing that SpaceX isn't capable of ferrying people or cargo into orbit, or that they don't have a viable business, or that they are not leaders in this market segment. That's all fine. I have no issues with Musk or SpaceX. I like seeing American companies succeeding. But perhaps Musk should dial down the hyperbole. >It my have a kernel of truth but if the 'truth' is something totally banal like 'Reusability is not a panacea.' then that doesn't actually make their arguments valid But reusability isn't a panacea for cost savings. There are real challenges with reusable rocke

Critical rriepe · 2021-05 · on “Volvo and Daimler bet on hydrogen truck boom this decade”

Because of how scammy SpaceX is. Phil's points that we're just re-trodding the reusable vehicle idea from the Space Shuttle days, but somehow paying more for it, are pretty damning in my eyes [1]. It feels a lot like government-funded rocket shows. I mean, space stuff happening is fun and I like it. But if it was cheaper to do it through NASA, on even the famously expensive Space Shuttle, what's the point of all of this? Tesla's stuff is all minor in comparison. [1]: [this video] (Disclosure: I'm from Orlando and almost certainly somehow biased towards the shuttle program, not that I don't think it wasn't an inherently flawed idea. It was an awesome inherently flawed idea. So I actually do unders

Critical arcticbull · 2022-02 · on “15 of 23 Monkeys with Elon Musk’s Neuralink Brain Chips Reportedly Died”

So far he's... - planning to dig tiny tunnels with no ventilation or emergency egress for cars instead of, you know, trains [1] - [edit](as if the only reason we have traffic is because lanes are uncovered? maybe just put a roof over the highway as a beta test?) - he's walked back the whole hyperloop thing almost entirely [2] - some electric cars where he tried to overthrow the government of Bolivia to source lithium [3] - at a company which produces a single digit percentage as many cars as say Toyota, but is valued at the entire rest of the car industry put together - [edit] and a publicly available beta of an autopilot system that seems hell-bent on murder (including having tried to off m