A visual guide to Bayesian thinking
Why Hacker News recommends it
HN recommends it as a short, accessible intro to Bayesian reasoning and priors.
What it is
Julia Galef uses pictures to explain Bayes' rule, then tells three personal stories showing how she applies it to improve her thinking.
Recommended by 3 HN commenters across 3 different months, 2017 to 2021.
What Hacker News said
Strong rec mathzthrowaway6 · 2017-08 · on “The Kolmogorov option”
I wrote the present comment to 1) teach something about mathematics and probability 2) share enlightenment. In summary this comment should change your thinking about all subjects, forever. -------------- Program of study for this comment: 1. Read section 1 (approx. 1 hour.) Goal: improve your mathematical reasoning. 2. 30 minute break. 3. Read section 2 (approx 5 minutes). Goal: enlightenment. 1. The most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life. Firstly, unless you are a practicing mathematician this is the most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life. It is purely about mathematics: [this video] Watch it. Suppose that you take an hour and learn this. You h
Strong rec mathzthrowaway6 · 2017-08 · on “The Kolmogorov option”
Note: as a throwaway I was unable to complete edits to this comment, therefore please upvote (and endorse) only this version. The first version should remain dead as a dupe. ----- In the spirit of the article we're discussing, I wrote the present comment to 1) teach something about mathematics and probability 2) share a bit of social enlightenment. In summary this comment should change your thinking fundamentally. You will need to read it carefully but I promise it is relevant. (Please endorse it and upvote it, if you agree.) -------------- Program of study for this comment. I suggest you go through this comment as follows. 1. Read section 1 (approx. 1 hour.) Goal: improve your mathematical
Recommends thrwaway190220 · 2019-02 · on “Google says Nest’s built-in mic not listed in specs was not meant to be secret”
>You have two options, choose one: Your analysis is sensible. Where we should choose the most likely explanation, it might become sharper: - In case you're not familiar with it, one helpful tool is prior probability (Bayesian thinking). This video is short and accessible: [this video] - There is a public intelligence budget in 2018 of $54.9 billion in the United States[1], as compared with the combined annual R&D expenditure of Apple, Google, Intel, and Microsoft at $53.2 billion[2]. This employs over 100,000 people[3]. - According to Snowden, they covertly use microphones.[4] He had reporters put their mobile phones in a fridge/microwave, since they could be turned on remotely. A sensible assump
Recommends techsin101 · 2021-08 · on “How is efficacy vs. severe disease strong if 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?”
Bayesian statistics at play here... Good explanation: [this video] Imagine a world where there are 100 unvax and 9 million vaxed, now even if vaccines are 99% effective, you'd get 9M x 0.01 = 90k vax and sick.