A new look at active vs passive (Michael Green)

What Hacker News said

Recommends PascLeRasc · 2020-08 · on “Ask HN: I have $450K cash, what should I do to maximize my return?”

Your argument is exactly what Michael Green talks about [1]. The talk I linked is from January of this year and he basically predicted the exact crash we saw in February. Individual stocks were going up and down tracking the S&P 500 exactly, based on no news or any kind of information, just that they were in the S&P index. The price of the stock did not reflect the company's financials or outlook. We're about to see this when Tesla gets added to the S&P 500 - funds will be required to purchase Tesla stock at any price. The reason that I'm personally an index fund skeptic is that I like to understand what I'm invested in. If you look through the S&P 500 members, there's dozens to hundreds of

Recommends PascLeRasc · 2021-04 · on ““Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading”

You'd probably be interested in listening to this talk by Michael Green: [this video] He goes into a lot of data around the idea that the market is "too passive", and he believes that we were already at that point last year before the pandemic.

Cites ItsMonkk · 2021-06 · on “Michael Burry warns the 'mother of all crashes' is coming”

I see Burry as a financial pen-tester. He researches very deeply into the mechanics of how the market works. He's looking into the code. Once he finds a bug, he finds what effects would occur if the bug occurs. Once he has found something with a big enough impact, then he asks what would trigger it to occur. In 2006 he found excessive margin being applied to housing. He saw that the Fed was raising their rates. He knew that it was inevitable that this would cause foreclosures. There were massive bets bigger than anything the system could bear, and in fact his bets were a piece of it. Was he early? Yes. Had he been later, would he have got a bigger return? Perhaps not. It was only that he was

Cites Fade_Dance · 2025-09 · on “Enshittification author explains why stock buybacks are such a scam”

Completely inaccurate, and written in an obnoxious immature style. Speaking with complete authority, yet doesn't grasp the 101 level knowledge. >But the buyback hasn't reduced the price of the company's shares: it has doubled that price. The company has made its shares more valuable while making itself less valuable. Yes, this is what distributing profit looks like in all businesses. From a furniture shop to a car manufacturer corporation to a SaaS software company. The money comes out of the corporate balance sheet (reducing the value of the company) and is distributed to shareholders. Unless a company can infinitely grow, this is what companies tend to do eventually. Sometimes a company do

Cites Fade_Dance · 2025-10 · on “OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals”

You are being mindful of some real risks and concerns. That said, there's no reason to have to feel like you need to take a stab at it totally by yourself. Heck, that's what I'm doing in the day to day - putting together a few of these portfolios for people. There are certainly advisors and managers who know the academic side of this and can diversify away from concentration risks and such. There are also many great tools in the relatively recent future that have opened up for common investors to diversify smartly. You can get pure trend following wrapped up in an ETF. You can get 100% equity 100% bond wrapped up in an etf at half of the size, so you can fit Gold and Trend in a portfolio wit