Arithmetic, Population and Energy - a talk by Al Bartlett
Why Hacker News recommends it
HN commenters cite it as a mind-changing introduction to exponential growth, though some note his peak oil predictions did not pan out.
What it is
Physicist Al Bartlett's well-known lecture on the arithmetic of exponential growth, applied to population, energy consumption and resource depletion. He argues that steady percentage growth cannot be sustained on a finite planet and that most public discussion ignores this.
Recommended by 6 HN commenters across 5 different months, 2016 to 2023.
What Hacker News said
Strong rec jiggawatts · 2020-03 · on “Ask HN: What are some deep, mentality changing books?”
For me, several books by Greg Egan fall into this category. Permutation City, Diaspora, Quarantine, and Schild's Ladder have all... changed me. I was a different person before and after I had read those books, and now I categorise all works of fiction into those that forever alter my way of thinking and those that do not. [LINK] Which reminds me, I should finish: [LINK] The Culture series by Iain Banks, especially Inversions also satisfy this requirement, as does The City at the End of Time by Greg Bear: [LINK] -- which is a difficult to consume masterpiece that nonetheless left me permanently horrified in the way that H. P. Lovecraft tried but failed. For the non-fiction category the CGP Gr
Strong rec simonblack · 2020-03 · on “Why don’t I know anyone who knows anyone with Covid-19? [pdf]”
"Two minutes past twelve." The problem with stuff like this is that most people have no knowledge about the dangers of exponential growth. It only takes an hour, but it's the most valuable use of an hour of your lifetime to watch Prof. Bartlett's talk on exponential growth in 'Arithmetic, Population and Energy': [this video]
Strong rec maerF0x0 · 2020-05 · on “Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life”
Compounding, growth etc [this video] Taught me the logical impossibility of the stock market to go up by x% per year, forever. Taught me that getting better today (however small) can give resources to getting better(er?) tomorrow. Taught me that many "experts" just say whatever to get voted in or to get a budget without regards to the absurdity of their own statements, and that many people eat up this kind of absurdity without fact checking / validating it.
Recommends qpwoeirutyzzzz · 2016-07 · on “How climate change is rapidly taking the planet apart”
For starters have fewer or no kids, and stop traveling frivolously by air. Aircraft emissions, because they are made at high altitude, have a climate impact that is leveraged by a factor commonly estimated to be 2.7 higher than the same emissions if made at ground-level.[1] 1. [LINK] edit: also relevant [this video]
Recommends knorker · 2022-06 · on “Restarting my career after motherhood”
The population pyramid is not sustainable. The exponential function just will not allow for the combination of age pyramid and our increasingly effective health care keeping us alive to all become parents. Watch this talk: [this video] Tl;DW: we can not prevent the end of exponential population growth. We can only choose how it ends. By starvation, war, disease, or fewer births. Pension systems have relied on growth for a long time, but it's just not mathematically possible is the long run.
Recommends RetroTechie · 2023-07 · on “Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist”
Great read! Reminds me of this lecture: [this video] Al Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population and Energy Amazing how again & again, even so-called 'experts' can't do math, or ignore fundamental physics constraints. Never mind news outlets or the general public. And... most people don't understand exponential growth. Which brings me to b) math + physics is much much much much more reliable than people. So if you understand the physics involved, do the math, conclude that it can't possibly work, but someone (expert or otherwise) says it will work: go with your calculator. :-)
Cites acqq · 2017-02 · on “What's Really Warming the World?”
It's fascinating how you ignore all the measurements that don't match your, as you say, "political" view, if you followed the links, that is. Because you can't say then you didn't understand how much are of them disproving your claims, and what they mean, and still claim you earned a Ph.D. Do you really think it's the whole world conspiracy? Because the "political" claim has no sense unless you believe that world consists only of the US of A, it's most of the scientists all around the world. If you simply say that the short-term politics is more important for you than the future of the world, I can at least understand. Anyway, "the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to u
Cites gambler · 2018-10 · on “Alarming study shows massive insect loss”
There is an old lecture that draws this exact parallel: "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" [this video]