Václav Smil at Driva Climate Investment Meeting 2019
Why Hacker News recommends it
Frequently linked as a sobering, data-grounded counterpoint to techno-optimism about decarbonization and green growth.
What it is
Vaclav Smil's talk on historic energy transitions and what they imply for climate investment. He argues that transitions are slow, technology improves gradually, and only absolute cuts in energy use would truly work.
Recommended by 3 HN commenters across 8 different months, 2019 to 2024.
What Hacker News said
Strong rec raaaaraaaa2 · 2019-08 · on “Singapore Says Musk's Electric Cars Are About 'Lifestyle,' Not Climate”
On the other hand 1/2 of world looks more or less the same - rural Africa, india, china... If you believe we are highly adaptable and new technologies will 'save us' somehow check this presentation : [this video] ...it's eye opening
Strong rec carapace · 2021-10 · on “‘Green growth’ doesn’t exist – less of everything only way to avert catastrophe”
Here's a fascinating talk by Václav Smil at the Driva Climate Investment Meeting in 2019: [this video] Bill Gates calls him "one of my favorite thinkers" and reviews his recent book "Growth": > Vaclav Smil ... reaches the ... conclusion: Earth is fragile and “before it is too late, we should embark in earnest on the most fundamental existential [task] of making any future growth compatible with the long-term preservation of the only biosphere we have.” [LINK]
Strong rec carapace · 2022-03 · on “Launch HN: Living Carbon (YC W20) – Trees that capture and store more carbon”
> the ability to dramatically reduce world hunger is a direct consequence of humans' capacity to improve crop yields such as rice and corn through breeding and engineering. Not through "breeding and engineering", through artificial nitrogen fertilizer. We have been turning oil into people . > prevented the starvation of millions of people. That delayed the starvation of millions of people and now we are facing the prospect of the starvation of billions of people. FWIW, I do applauded Maddie and her team, and I wish them luck and hope they succeed. But the only way we are going to avert disaster is to stop taking carbon out of the ground and putting it into the air. That's it. Here's a fascin
Strong rec carapace · 2024-09 · on “Shrinking the economy won't save the planet”
> the degrowth position is that people are inevitably going to lead worse lives than at present, but that we can choose between things getting kind of bad, by systematically pursuing degrowth, and things getting apocalyptically bad, which is what will happen if we continue pursuing growth I can't speak for others who advocate for degrowth, but that seems about right to me, with the caveat that I believe ecologically harmonious lifestyles would be more fun and fulfilling than what we have now. The challenge is to return to harmony with Nature while still enjoying the benefits of science and technology. - - - - > fourth, the most urgent environmental problem for human quality of life is global
Recommends aksss · 2021-03 · on “Moore's Law for Everything”
> “Moore’s Law for everything” should be the rallying cry of a generation whose members can’t afford what they want." Ugh. Moore's law doesn't apply to everything, and in fact doesn't apply to most things, and wishing it did won't change that. I think Vaclav Smil did an effective diagnosis of this at the Driva Climate Investment Meeting: [this video]
Recommends carapace · 2021-03 · on “The operative system for a decarbonised, decentralised, digitised energy system”
Small-scale alcohol fuel production integrated into regenerative agriculture. (This is different from large-scale industrial ethanol production.) You grow e.g. sugar beets, convert them to alcohol and some byproducts (that go back into the farm as feed and fertilizer), use the alcohol in generators and vehicles. You're operating within your solar budget, the atoms that make up the alcohol came from water and air so all your nutrients and trace minerals stay on the farm and the fuel is carbon-neutral (all the carbon released when you burn the fuel originally came from the air in the form of carbon dioxide, not from underground fossilized carbon), and it can be done with simple off-the-shelf t
Recommends carapace · 2021-04 · on “Mining robot stranded on Pacific Ocean floor in deep-sea mining trial”
Batteries are not a great idea. E.g. an electric car should use alcohol fuel and a small generator rather than fancy batteries. You can grow sugar crops, convert them to fuel (reclaiming the non-fuel parts), and then use that to power your infrastructure. It's carbon-neutral, environmentally sound (waaaaaaay more than batteries), and you can do it today. No sea mines required. The only downside is that you have to live within your solar power budget, but we have to do that anyway to counter global warming (until cheap fusion becomes a thing.) Here's a video of Václav Smil at Driva Climate Investment Meeting 2019 giving a talk called "Investing in a changing climate – what we can learn from h
Recommends carapace · 2021-06 · on “What can a technologist do about climate change? (2015)”
Use less energy. Here's Václav Smil at Driva Climate Investment Meeting 2019 giving a talk called "Investing in a changing climate – what we can learn from historic energy transitions". [this video] The conclusion is sobering: "Only absolute cuts in energy use would work." ( [this video] ) We can do this and most of the technology needed is already invented and available, we just have to get our act together as a species and start using our tech efficiently. We don't have to endure a lower quality of life, just eliminating waste would get us most of the way there.