Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - Oslo, March 2016
Why Hacker News recommends it
Cited as a well-argued case that solar plus batteries and EVs will reach a tipping point sooner than mainstream forecasts expect.
What it is
Tony Seba's 2016 keynote argues that batteries, electric vehicles, self-driving cars and solar will converge to disrupt energy and transportation. He predicts by 2030 all new vehicles will be electric and autonomous and that oil and other fossil fuels will be obsolete.
Recommended by 3 HN commenters across 3 different months, 2016 to 2018.
What Hacker News said
Strong rec b_emery · 2016-09 · on “How to Raise Trillions for Green Investments”
As solar energy costs drop below those of fossil fuels [1], its seems possible that for a few trillion, some kind of sequestration would be possible. One could imagine entire PV farms devoted solely to restoration of the atmosphere to pre-industrial levels, for example. In my opinion, climate change is a problem with an engineering solution. As a side note, the linked reference is a well argued version of the near future of transportation and energy. Highly recommended [1] Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - [this video]
Recommends spditner · 2016-10 · on “Battery technology may emerge as a trillion-dollar threat to credit markets”
There's an excellent talk by Tony Seba at the Nordic Enegy Summit that goes into more depth about how batteries and solar are quite possibly going to reach the tipping point sooner than anyone has been forecasting: [this video]
Recommends patrickk · 2017-02 · on “Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates”
Another way to look at it: how big is the global market for gas peaker plants? If current trends continue, solar PV + batteries will be cheaper at some point than any fossil fuel[1], so at that point Telsa energy will begin to consume large chunks of that market. According to this link[2] gas peaker plans were 50% of energy installs in 2013, the best link I could find from a quick search. [1] Interesting talk on this topic: [this video] [2] [LINK]
Cites patrickk · 2016-10 · on “Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years”
> Considering how most of his current businesses exist thanks to gov't incentives/tax advantages in the domains, there are legitimate criticisms to the way in which his businesses are run. Many of his Detroit competitors wouldn't exist/would be a shadow of their current selves if it wasn't for a massive bailout in 2008. Why is this never mentioned? If this is how low the bar is set (bailing out large, badly-managed companies) then why shouldn't the government provide incentives for exciting new industries that promise to provide huge wealth and employment in the future? Furthermore, many of Tesla's non-US competitors are given generous subsidies, e.g. German car makers[1] > Offer tax incenti
Cites chinathrow · 2016-11 · on “Finland set to become first country to ban coal use for energy”
The question is what happens to _all_ the central power plants once the cost of transmission is more expensive than the cost of generation of solar power. [this video]
Cites donclark · 2018-07 · on “Waymo's Self-Driving Cars Are Near: Meet a Teen Who Rides One Every Day”
What does this mean for car ownership/insurance companies/auto dealers/mechanics/public transportation/etc? Has anyone seen a roadmap that includes how other industries are affected(disrupted)? Should we think hard about selling our cars now before they are de-valued or become more costly to drive? Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - Oslo, March 2016 [this video]